Could we see a Robert Menendez vs. Mel Martinez Vice Presidential Race?
Wednesday, January 30th, 2008UPDATE: After writing this blog, I learned from some of our astute readers that the scenario I outlined cannot happen because Mel Martinez wasn’t born in this country — and perhaps that’s a barrier we will be able to remove at some point down the road. In the meantime, perhaps the GOP can come up with another viable candidate! What do you think?
As we approach Super Tuesday, there is already speculation of possible vice presidential candidates. Can you imagine this possible scenario? If Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination for President of the United States, there is the possibility that Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey could be on the short list to become her running mate as vice president. If Senator John McCain becomes the Republican nominee, he could tap Senator Mel Martinez of Florida as his vice presidential running mate.
Such a scenario would have been considered a distant dream in the past, but in today’s reality of an increasingly influential Latino vote, this is now possible. If this were to happen, what a show it would be during the vice presidential debate: Robert Menendez vs. Mel Martinez.
How could such a scenario arise? Consider the following:
Menendez is Clinton’s national campaign co-chair. He is also one of the best overall fundraising operatives within the Democratic Party, which is why he was named as the vice chair of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee with the task of raising money for current and potential U.S. Senators in competitive races. Menendez is very popular in the Latino community throughout the United States. The senator’s command of Spanish is stellar and his speaking style has inspirational characteristics that are similar to the speaking style of Senator Barack Obama.
Let me also address the geographic issue. Traditionally, the rule of thumb is to select a president and vice president from different regions of the United States. However, that rule has been broken several times with success. When Bill Clinton was looking for a vice presidential running mate in 1992, he tapped Al Gore despite the fact that Clinton came from Arkansas and Gore came from the neighboring state of Tennessee. In 2000, George W. Bush tapped Dick Cheney even though both of them came from Texas. To avoid a constitutional crisis of having one state with both the president and vice president, Cheney changed his residency from Texas to Wyoming, but he has always been a Texas man. Therefore, the fact that Senator Clinton comes from New York and Senator Menendez comes from New Jersey should NOT be a deterrent to selecting Menendez as a vice presidential candidate.
Additionally, Clinton’s campaign is different from others. As the former First Lady, she has strong name recognition beyond her home state of New York. Menendez also has good name recognition beyond New Jersey. The litmus test for a vice presidential candidate is whether there must be a “get-to-know” period. None is needed if Menendez is tapped. He is already well known especially among Latinos.
Let’s move over to the Republican side. After McCain’s victory in the Florida Primary, it makes him the serious front-runner for the Republican nomination. Florida was the first state in the primary calendar where only Republicans could vote, which is evidence that he could win the support of Republicans and not need independents to win a primary. McCain was endorsed by Senator Mel Martinez, Congressman Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart, and Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, all Latino members of Congress from Florida.
If McCain becomes the Republican nominee, those Florida members of Congress may push for Martinez as their pick for vice president and McCain would have to give it serious thought. Additionally, Martinez is the Chairman of the Republican National Committee, which gives him immense influence in lobbying for a vice presidential nomination. His help in getting McCain a victory in the critical swing state of Florida makes him a valuable ally to the candidate. This might be enough leverage to select Martinez as McCain’s vice presidential running mate.
Let’s also consider the other potential strategies that could be reason for a Menendez vs. Martinez vice presidential race. Latinos in general are very angry with the Republican Party for its stance on immigration, particularly when the Republican-led Congress passed HR 4437: The Sensenbrenner Bill in December 2005, which was the most anti-immigrant bill ever passed by Congress in U.S. history. It led to millions of Latinos taking to the streets on April 10, 2006 to protest the passing of the bill in the House and swung many independent and Republican Latinos towards the Democratic Party. The Sensenbrenner Bill never made it to the U.S. Senate due to the immense pressure from Latinos. Republicans lost power in both the House and Senate in the November 2006 election primarily with the help of angry Latinos who mobilized to vote for Democrats. If McCain becomes the Republican nominee, he may tap Martinez in an effort to mend the damage to the Latino community.
As for Clinton, she is very popular with the Latino community in the U.S. She will be looking at certain swing states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and New Mexico where a vice presidential nominee could be a significant asset. Those swing states have significant Latino populations and Menendez is a grass-roots senator who knows how to mobilize and inspire voters to come out. Additionally, Menendez voted against the war with Iraq, which would give him the extra ammunition to take on potential rival Martinez in a vice presidential debate on the Iraq war issue. Menendez is very polished and has appeal beyond the Latino community.
We already know that 2008 is like no other presidential election year. It is the most wide open election in over 50 years. Democratic and Republican strategists will likely throw away the playbooks of the 1970’s and 1980’s. This is a different kind of election and it requires a different kind of strategy to win the presidency. A strategy that does not integrate Latinos could be a risky strategy for Democrats and Republicans. There is no easier way for a presidential candidate to demonstrate his/her support for the Latino community than to name a Latino vice presidential candidate.
So if Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator John McCain win the Democratic and Republican nominations, respectively, don’t be surprised if we see Senator Robert Menendez vs. Senator Mel Martinez vice presidential nominations. If this happens, YOU HEARD IT FROM CID WILSON FIRST!!!!